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                <h3>王文：中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发</h3>

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                            <p><a href="../WangWen" target="_blank">王文</a><span>中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长</span></p>
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                <div class="time fix">
                    <span>2019-09-07 09:25:09</span>
                    <span>字号：<a fsize="14px" class="current ft-s" href="javascript:void(0);">A-</a>
	           <a fsize="18px" class="ft-zc" href="javascript:void(0);">A</a>
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                    <span>来源：观察者网</span>
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                <div class="time fix" style="padding:0"><span>最后更新: 2019-09-07 09:27:48</span></div>
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                    <p>
                        【文/观察者网专栏作者 王文】
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        “中美贸易战正在变成一场持久战，但我们已有准备。”在东莞洪梅镇，海新科技董事长杨敬辉当面告诉笔者。这家以生产综合型厨房电器为主、近半数产品销往美国的高新技术企业受到美国加征关税的巨大影响，但杨敬辉显然对自己产品很自信，他说，“我们有底气与美国进口商谈判与合作，分摊特朗普加征关税的冲击。我们也有更多办法，如提升技术含量、开辟更多国际市场，进而对冲美国无端加税的消极影响。”
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        近日，笔者率队赴广州、东莞与深圳密集调研，与20多家机构数百人当面访谈与交流，经常能感受到像杨敬辉这样的豪情人士，虽受大冲击，但乐观向上，不折不挠，想尽办法解决当下困境，绑定国运，扎实前行。
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        <strong>特朗普“速胜”企图已在穗莞深破产</strong>
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        全球25%智能手机、20%毛衣、30%玩具、10%眼镜与运动鞋均产自东莞，中美经贸摩擦对东莞市的影响可想而知。笔者与东莞市政府八个部门相关负责人座谈后得知，一年前，由于中美贸易摩擦不断升温，一些投资者信心不足，抛售股票，拖累股价不跌，东莞设立上市莞企发展投资基金，先后为6家上市公司提供纾困资金，传导信心，有效保障了在莞上市公司面临的股票质押风险及流动性危机。
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        2019年1-7月，东莞规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，进出口同比增长4.4%，两者数据虽比上半年均有少许回落，但远高于全国水平。在国内外复杂严峻形势下，东莞企业喜忧参半。先进制造业、高技术制造业规模以上工业增加值分别增长了10.4%、17.3%，其中电子信息制造业同比增长高达17.8%。但纺织服装鞋帽制造业、造纸及纸制品业则呈负增长，同比分别下降3%和0.7%。
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        贸易战导致的原材料购进受限、环保与人工成本增加等原因，的确逼迫企业转型。在全球最大女鞋生产企业之一的华坚集团东莞总部，一位在流水线上忙碌的工人告诉笔者，每天工作10小时左右，有周末，吃住都包，月末能尽拿五六千元人民币。“但在埃塞，工人工资一般只有100美元左右。这里会升级为研发中心。”华坚董事长张华荣对笔者坦承。这位多次受党和国家领导接见的优秀企业家从2011年开始到埃塞俄比亚投资办厂，已获园区用地1.38平方公里，年出口创汇20亿美元，员工上万人。在张华荣眼里，华坚志在全球。
                    </p>
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                        <img src="https://i.guancha.cn/news/origin/2019/09/07/20190907092144799.jpg">
                    </p>
                    <p align="center">
                        <span style="color:#999999;">华坚鞋业生产车间</span>
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        在全球最大手机代工企业之一的华勤通讯，某高管表示，5G时代，美国技术不占有优势，肯定打垮不了中国企业，而手机企业有不少替代方案。当然，他承认，笔记本电脑类的生产与销售可能由于芯片技术等原因受到的影响会大一些。
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        截止8月中旬，一份对东莞587家重点企业的调研，美国对剩余3000亿美元清单加征关税后，预计订单量“没有影响的”占24.6%，“略有下滑（10%以内）”占34.3%，严重下滑（超过30%）仅占6.5%。调研企业反映，目前人民币持续贬值有利于对冲出口风险，但不确定性正在增强。“东莞人的顽强性格决定了，未来虽难，但一定会有出路”，主抓当地企业家培训的东莞市思源职业学校校长江波说，“至少特朗普想要借贸易战速胜中国的企图，在东莞企业家面前彻底破产。”
                    </p>
                    <p>
                        在深圳大疆、深圳海能达等企业，笔者同样听到了不少企业界人士的坚定信心。在深圳证券交易所，60%投资者认为贸易战会长期持续。80%被调查者在投资决策时会考虑贸易战因素，但仅有1/3投资者在减仓。正如《日本经济新闻》近日报道，中国无惧“比拼耐力”。
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                                                                target="_blank">中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发</a><span
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                                                                href="/WangWen/2019_08_27_515374.shtml?s=zwyzzwzbt"
                                                                target="_blank">美国还重要吗？</a><span
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                                                                href="/WangWen/2019_08_07_512583.shtml?s=zwyzzwzbt"
                                                                target="_blank">破7之后，我们为什么还对人民币有信心？</a><span
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                                                                href="/WangWen/2019_06_29_507483.shtml?s=zwyzzwzbt"
                                                                target="_blank">最近，一位来访的美国现任外交官私下这样对我说……</a><span
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                <div class="gc-comment" id="comments-container" data-id="423467" data-type="1" data-from="cms"><h3
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=330" target="_blank"
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                                <div class="comment-txt">标题说得好 中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发！我们走着瞧！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">美国的如此行为，激励了中国的应战派，教育了中间的漠视、摇摆派，打击和训诫了投降派！让中国人民更团结，更有斗志！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt"><img
                                        src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
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                                    <strong>只能背水一战，无路可退！狭路相逢勇者胜，这是中国人的智慧！大家必须坚定“四个自信”，砥砺前行！</strong></div>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">放弃幻想吧，中国已经顶替了当初苏联的位置，成为美帝的头号敌人了，以后会不停的冲突，直至一方倒下。</div>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=268941" target="_blank">紫衣青剑</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
                                        </div>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">脱贫攻坚后就是乡村振兴了，可做的很多呢，就看能不能把握。</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 12小时前</span>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
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                                        <div class="comment-txt ">标题说得好 中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发！我们走着瞧！</div>
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                                    毛主席说，扫帚不到，灰尘不会自动消失。画饼不可充饥，守株待兔也不行，要想吃苹果，首先要伸出手。只有行动，才能把思想转变成现实，或改造世界，从而获得生存和发展的基础。欲望和激情是人性的阳面，它是推动人行动的能动性的力量。而理性是人性的阴面，它收藏人在行动中的经验教训，分门别类，进行整理比较，进行总结，从而指引人的行动方向。方以类聚，物以群分，吉凶生焉，表达的正是理性的这样一种功能，这也就是理论的作用之一。伟大事业的成就，离不开伟大的斗争。而伟大的斗争，也离不开伟大热情的推动。热情是行动的动力之源，是行动的润滑剂。所以红楼梦的作者要给处在大荒山的荒寂的石头补情，这其实反映的是中国人历史深处的一种呼唤。而伟大的理论，是可以产生伟大的理想，伟大的理想可以产生改造世界的伟大的热情，它与务实的态度，实践的品格相结合，可以造就一个新的世界。<br>&nbsp;
                                    &nbsp;
                                    另外，辩证的历史唯物主义者从来不会空谈理想，正如不会空谈政治一样。他承认有血有肉的人的欲望的客观存在性和它的推动作用，因而总是把远大理想与切实的物质利益结合在一起。但物质利益的取得，不是从天而降，不是一步到位，唾手可得，而是需要一个艰难漫长的奋斗过程，乃至于要有勇气经受血与火的考验。因此，对物质利益的取得，只做狭隘的理解，绝对排斥理想信念的因素，人们甚至就将连追求物质利益的勇气也不会有。利益与精神是事物的一体两面，它们并不冲突，而是互相补充。物质利益使理想丰满生动，理想则将物质利益的追求者塑造成坚强自豪的精神主体，指引着他突破狭隘性，迈向一个更为远大的前景，从而给予历史实践者以夸父追日式永不懈怠的动力。
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
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                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
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                                <div class="comment-txt">以市场需求为引导才有意义，切忌盲目。</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 5小时前</span>
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                                        <span class="signature">做好一滴纯净水。</span></div>
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                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
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                                    农业精细化高端化，是不是会带来农产品的价格升高。那么多人去务农，那么务农的产品肯定包含了更多人的价值。我旁边一个超市，不卖普通水果菜，全是标着绿色有机符号，价格是普通的三倍。如果都这样高端，那很多人要低端了。
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                                        <div class="comment-txt ">每次经济波动，都会鼓励回乡创业。</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 12小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">...鼓励回乡创业...同时也投资修一修乡村道路、水利设施；<br>这次应该瞄准卫生医疗、乡居环境改造才对。</div>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">看前面黑洞洞，定是那贼巢穴，待俺赶上前去，杀他个干干净净！！！</div>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=330" target="_blank">改个名字好难</a>			<span
                                            class="member-logo"><img
                                            src="https://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/member-long.png?20190708"></span>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt ">标题说得好 中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发！我们走着瞧！</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">个子越小，能量越大，越是核心~~欧耶！！！<img
                                        src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/yx_thumb.gif"><img
                                        src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/yx_thumb.gif"></div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 31分钟前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">邪恶的美国必须干翻它，否则就被它吞噬。中国人不缺斗志，缺的是机遇，有此机遇岂容错过？给那些自强的中国人点赞！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 1小时前</span>
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                            <li data-id="17046029" data-root="17043972" class="comment-item cmt-item">
                                <div class="clearfix">
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                                        <div class="user-avatar popup-user" data-uid="24296" data-fromweibo="false"><img
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=24296" target="_blank"
                                           class="user-nick">如此完整</a> <span class="signature"></span></div>
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                                <div data-id="17043972" class="comment-box cmt-item clearfix">
                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=19825" target="_blank">沸騰的冰點</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt ">中美贸易战，貌似对山东影响不大，这是该庆幸呢还是该尴尬？</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 3小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">山东和日韩经贸比较密切吧。</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 1小时前</span>
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=171932" target="_blank"
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=268941" target="_blank">紫衣青剑</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
                                        </div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">如果你是农民工或农二代，你就不会这么说了</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 1小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">小编拜托你解释一下文中这句话的意思呗:“在深圳前海，人们“用脚投票”表达着对中国未来前景的真实想法。”</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 2小时前</span>
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=570022" target="_blank"
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                                <div class="comment-txt">怎么还在用出口创汇这个指标？国家智囊级人物都这个认识，人民币国际化还有指望吗？</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 2小时前</span>
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=85165" target="_blank"
                                           class="user-nick">系斜阳缆</a> <span class="signature"></span></div>
                                    <span class="all-floor">全部楼层</span></div>
                                <div data-id="17043341" class="comment-box cmt-item clearfix">
                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=574450" target="_blank">故人心眼</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt ">感情和理智上都同意！——但还是要用主席批评的“速胜论”警醒自己！</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 4小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">三年不算速胜论了。现在时间刚好过半嘛。下半打完川普可能没选上，换人换政策。如他连任，见效果不彰也会换成其它办法。</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 3小时前</span>
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=131310" target="_blank"
                                           class="user-nick">glzh</a> <span class="signature"></span></div>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">特朗普，垂死挣扎而已！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 3小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">中美贸易战，貌似对山东影响不大，这是该庆幸呢还是该尴尬？</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 3小时前</span>
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                                        <div class="comment-txt ">记得给川建国同志加鸡腿~~~<img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/laugh.gif"></div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">心胸、格局太小啦<img
                                        src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/ldln_thumb.gif">——要是主席，至少是一吨重的大“勋章”！<img
                                        src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/gza_thumb.gif"><img
                                        src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/tootha_thumb.gif"></div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 4小时前</span>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
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                                        <div class="comment-txt ">说是贸易持久战。但估计也就一个解放战争，绝不会是抗日战争。因为美国撑不住。</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 12小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">感情和理智上都同意！——但还是要用主席批评的“速胜论”警醒自己！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 4小时前</span>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=268941" target="_blank">紫衣青剑</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
                                        </div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">以市场需求为引导才有意义，切忌盲目。</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 5小时前</span>
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=193417" target="_blank"
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=110121" target="_blank">帝国咖喱</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt ">
                                            其实我很好奇自贸区有什么用。自由贸易和贸易保护都只是发展经济的手段，并不是目的。英国，德国，美国当年都是在重商主义，高关税的政策下发展起来的。
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                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 9小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">亲，现在不是十八世纪好吗？</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
                                            href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=268941" target="_blank">紫衣青剑</a>	</span>
                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
                                        </div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                    这话就矛盾了，机械化，工业化的农业生产就必然要缩减劳动力，反过来，工业化的农业要建立在城镇化，大量农业人口转变为非农人口的基础上，否则无法实现生产资料也就是土地的集中。这也有能一帮人点赞。
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                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                        <a href="//user.guancha.cn/user/personal-homepage?uid=133815" target="_blank"
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                                        <span class="signature">做好一滴纯净水。</span></div>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
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                                        <div class="comment-txt "><img
                                                src="http://user.guancha.cn/static/imgs/smiles/1/kbsa_thumb.gif">其实我觉得产业升级后，大量失业农民工应该回乡务农。国家也应该大力扶持农业精细化、高端化、工业化了。中国农业其实有很多地方很落后的。
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                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                    农业精细化高端化，是不是会带来农产品的价格升高。那么多人去务农，那么务农的产品肯定包含了更多人的价值。我旁边一个超市，不卖普通水果菜，全是标着绿色有机符号，价格是普通的三倍。如果都这样高端，那很多人要低端了。
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                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                    <span class="all-floor">全部楼层</span></div>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
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                                            毛主席说，扫帚不到，灰尘不会自动消失。画饼不可充饥，守株待兔也不行，要想吃苹果，首先要伸出手。只有行动，才能把思想转变成现实，或改造世界，从而获得生存和发展的基础。欲望和激情是人性的阳面，它是推动人行动的能动性的力量。而理性是人性的阴面，它收藏人在行动中的经验教训，分门别类，进行整理比较，进行总结，从而指引人的行动方向。方以类聚，物以群分，吉凶生焉，表达的正是理性的这样一种功能，这也就是理论的作用之一。伟大事业的成就，离不开伟大的斗争。而伟大的斗争，也离不开伟大热情的推动。热情是行动的动力之源，是行动的润滑剂。所以红楼梦的作者要给处在大荒山的荒寂的石头补情，这其实反映的是中国人历史深处的一种呼唤。而伟大的理论，是可以产生伟大的理想，伟大的理想可以产生改造世界的伟大的热情，它与务实的态度，实践的品格相结合，可以造就一个新的世界。<br>&nbsp;
                                            &nbsp;
                                            另外，辩证的历史唯物主义者从来不会空谈理想，正如不会空谈政治一样。他承认有血有肉的人的欲望的客观存在性和它的推动作用，因而总是把远大理想与切实的物质利益结合在一起。但物质利益的取得，不是从天而降，不是一步到位，唾手可得，而是需要一个艰难漫长的奋斗过程，乃至于要有勇气经受血与火的考验。因此，对物质利益的取得，只做狭隘的理解，绝对排斥理想信念的因素，人们甚至就将连追求物质利益的勇气也不会有。利益与精神是事物的一体两面，它们并不冲突，而是互相补充。物质利益使理想丰满生动，理想则将物质利益的追求者塑造成坚强自豪的精神主体，指引着他突破狭隘性，迈向一个更为远大的前景，从而给予历史实践者以夸父追日式永不懈怠的动力。
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                                <div class="comment-txt">支持！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                        <div class="comment-txt ">说是贸易持久战。但估计也就一个解放战争，绝不会是抗日战争。因为美国撑不住。</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 12小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">赞！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                    <div class="cmt-item-main"><span class="quote">		<a
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                                        <div class="comment-txt ">标题说得好 中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发！我们走着瞧！</div>
                                        <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 13小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">中美贸易“持久战”，中国人的斗志被激发！中国人民在美帝的威逼下，确实更加团结！</div>
                                <div class="list-footer clearfix"><span class="time"> 6小时前</span>
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                                <div class="comment-txt">记得给川建国同志加鸡腿~~~<img
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